Article 10118

Title of the article

FORECASTS OF THE USSR DEVELOPMENT REFLECTED IN ANALYTICAL MATERIALS OF THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY (1981–1991)

Authors

Yakupov Roman Aleksandrovich, Candidate of historical sciences, scientific project’s team member, Penza State University (40 Krasnaya street, Penza, Russia), penza.pr58@mail.ru
Yakupova Dar'ya Viktorovna, Candidate of historical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of Russian history and history teaching methods, Penza State University (40 Krasnaya street, Penza, Russia), bubnova90@mail.ru

Index UDK

94 (470+73)

DOI

10.21685/2072-3024-2018-1-10

Abstract

Background. The theme of the collapse of the Soviet Union occupies a central position in the practice of studying the contemporary history of Russia. Researchers put forward various hypotheses, among which was a populist point of view about the
role of the external factor in this process and, in particular, of the United States. Today, when there is another round of confrontation the foreign policy of the United States and the Russian Federation, analysis of the historical experience of cooperation
between the two countries in the twentieth century is of particular interest. Today, however, it is impossible to objectively and comprehensively evaluate the events without proper analysis and involvement into scientific circulation new representative
sources. The aim of this work is the study of the perception of American analysts of the socio-economic and political situation of the USSR in 1981–1991 based on foreign sources.
Materials and methods. The implementation of scientific tasks based on historical analysis of declassified documents of the Central intelligence Agency of the United States, most of which are introduced into scientific circulation Soviet historical science for the first time. The methodologies of the work are the basic principles of scientific knowledge (historicism and objectivity) and especially historical research methods: descriptive, comparative, content analysis, historical-systematic, statistical and problem-chronological.
Results. Translated and analyzed declassified documents of the CIA contains the forecasts about the prospects of the Soviet Union, which gave a possibility to form scientific conceptions of the degree of perception of the highest American political establishment of possible ways of development of the Soviet Union during his last decade. Traces the evolution of the expert opinion of the U.S. intelligence community about the state of Soviet society in the period of acute socio-economic crisis in the 1980-ies.
Conclusions. A study of declassified documents has allowed refuting the conclusions of a number of foreign historians on the presence of an unexpected collapse of the Soviet state in 1991, and the lack of forecasts on the possible dissolution of the USSR and the consequences of such developments for the United States.

Key words

USSR, USA, Central Intelligence Agency, economy, crisis

 

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Дата создания: 07.09.2018 14:46
Дата обновления: 07.09.2018 14:51